Market reactionShares fell 13% on Nov 5.
Keros Therapeutics is a clinical-stage company developing rinvatercept, a protein that blocks myostatin and activin A, for Duchenne muscular dystrophy and ALS; it is not approved.
Keros's case now rests on rinvatercept, a ligand trap that blocks myostatin and activin A, which increased muscle mass and bone mineral density in healthy volunteers. A Phase 2 in Duchenne muscular dystrophy dosed its first patient in September, with initial data in the first half of 2027, and an ALS Phase 2 is being designed. Phase 3 starts for elritercept by Takeda earned Keros two $20 million milestones. Cash of $257.6 million should fund operations into the first half of 2028.
Thesis checklist
0 risks need attention
Why it is in this state
The evidence, what would weaken it and the source filing
Why it is in this state
The evidence, what would weaken it and the source filing
Why it is in this state
The evidence, what would weaken it and the source filing
Why it is in this state
The evidence, what would weaken it and the source filing
Next decision point
Tests: Rinvatercept shows safety and early benefit in DMD
Is rinvatercept safe in boys with DMD, with early signs of more muscle or better function?
Strong, inconclusive and weak outcomes
What to look for in the result and how each would move the checklist
Price and material events
Select an event marker to read the update below. Marker colors show Thesis status.
Keros dosed the first patient in rinvatercept's Phase 2 in Duchenne muscular dystrophy, with initial data due in 1H 2027; Takeda's elritercept Phase 3s are paying milestones
Keros rebuilt around a muscle-wasting ActA/ActB trap after a PAH safety halt; the case turns on whether Phase 1 PD signals in healthy volunteers translate to functional benefit in DMD
Takeda-backed elritercept enters Phase 3 against an active comparator in MDS anemia; whether it beats epoetin alfa determines the company's worth
Rinvatercept's ALS thesis hinges on whether Phase 1 tolerability translates into disease-modifying efficacy in a Phase 2 trial with no approved comparator
About this history: every entry shows when the Thesis moved and what it said. The reasoning behind each move (the evidence, the analysis and the source filing) and the earnings write-ups are part of a subscription.
Dates, trials and completed outcomes are open to everyone. What each upcoming milestone hinges on is part of a subscription.
Disease areas: Blood cancers, Neuromuscular diseases, Neurology and pain
Catalyst calendar · Upcoming FDA decisions · Thesis changes
Competitive landscape
23 peers tracked
Cash: Market-data provider estimate; measurement period unavailable.
Debt: Market-data provider estimate; a complete comparable filing balance is unavailable.
Quarterly burn: Estimated from trailing free cash flow; measurement period unavailable.
Net cash and estimated runway require verified matching measurement periods. Missing debt components are not assumed to be zero.
Runway: No underlying guidance available.