Market reactionShares fell 10% on Nov 5.
Recursion is a clinical-stage company that uses AI-driven drug discovery, led by REC-4881, an oral MEK1/2 inhibitor for familial adenomatous polyposis (FAP), and REC-1245 for solid tumors; none are approved.
Recursion's case centers on investigational REC-4881 for FAP, with polyp reductions supporting a registrational trial targeted for the second half of 2027, pending FDA discussions. REC-1245's early cancer responses and partnered discovery offer additional opportunities. The completed October offering supports management's expected runway into 2029, conditional on operating plans and risk-adjusted existing partnership inflows. FDA requirements and durable benefit with tolerable long-term dosing remain the main investment questions.
Thesis checklist
0 risks need attention
Why it is in this state
The evidence, what would weaken it and the source filing
Why it is in this state
The evidence, what would weaken it and the source filing
Why it is in this state
The evidence, what would weaken it and the source filing
Why it is in this state
The evidence, what would weaken it and the source filing
Next decision point
Tests: FDA agrees a registrational trial for REC-4881
Does FDA agree to a registrational design Recursion can initiate in the second half of 2027?
Strong, inconclusive and weak outcomes
What to look for in the result and how each would move the checklist
Price and material events
Select an event marker to read the update below. Marker colors show Thesis status.
REC-4881's broader polyp activity supports the case; FDA requirements remain the key decision
AI-drug-discovery platform bet with one program near a registrational inflection, contingent on FDA defining an approvable path from single-arm Phase 2 data
About this history: every entry shows when the Thesis moved and what it said. The reasoning behind each move (the evidence, the analysis and the source filing) and the earnings write-ups are part of a subscription.
Dates, trials and completed outcomes are open to everyone. What each upcoming milestone hinges on is part of a subscription.
Disease areas: Blood cancers, Breast and gynecologic cancers, Gastrointestinal cancers, Other cancers, Liver and digestive diseases, Autoimmune and inflammatory diseases, Endocrine and bone diseases
Catalyst calendar · Upcoming FDA decisions · Thesis changes
Competitive landscape
5 peers tracked
Cash: Market-data provider estimate; measurement period unavailable.
Debt: Market-data provider estimate; a complete comparable filing balance is unavailable.
Quarterly burn: Estimated from trailing free cash flow; measurement period unavailable.
Net cash and estimated runway require verified matching measurement periods. Missing debt components are not assumed to be zero.
Runway: No underlying guidance available.