Market reactionShares rose 35% on Nov 2.
Neumora Therapeutics is a clinical-stage company developing drugs for brain and metabolic diseases, including NMRA-511 for agitation in Alzheimer's disease; none is approved.
Neumora's original case, navacaprant in depression, ended in June 2026 after three Phase 3 failures. The company now rests on earlier programs: NMRA-511 for agitation in Alzheimer's disease, with data in Q4 2026, and NMRA-898 for schizophrenia, with data in the second half of 2026. NMRA-215 for obesity has an IND planned for Q4 2026, and cash of $116.8 million should last into the third quarter of 2027.
Thesis checklist
1 risk needs attention
Why it is in this state
The evidence, what would weaken it and the source filing
Why it is in this state
The evidence, what would weaken it and the source filing
Why it is in this state
The evidence, what would weaken it and the source filing
Why it is in this state
The evidence, what would weaken it and the source filing
Next decision point
Tests: NMRA-511 shows activity in Alzheimer's agitation
Does NMRA-511 reduce agitation in Alzheimer's disease with acceptable safety?
Strong, inconclusive and weak outcomes
What to look for in the result and how each would move the checklist
Price and material events
Select an event marker to read the update below. Marker colors show Thesis status.
After navacaprant failed, Neumora's first new data, in Alzheimer's agitation and schizophrenia, come by year-end
Neumora pivots to NMRA-511 in AD agitation after navacaprant's three Phase 3 failures; the bet now hinges on whether Phase 1b signals translate to Phase 2 efficacy
Navacaprant enters a make-or-break Q2 Phase 3 readout with a prior failure already on the record — a second miss would gut the Thesis
Navacaprant's two pending Phase 3 MDD readouts are high-stakes retries after an earlier Phase 3 miss — the company's entire value rides on them
About this history: every entry shows when the Thesis moved and what it said. The reasoning behind each move (the evidence, the analysis and the source filing) and the earnings write-ups are part of a subscription.
Dates, trials and completed outcomes are open to everyone. What each upcoming milestone hinges on is part of a subscription.
Disease areas: Neurology and pain, Psychiatric disorders, Obesity, diabetes and heart disease
Catalyst calendar · Upcoming FDA decisions · Thesis changes
Competitive landscape
36 peers tracked
Cash: Market-data provider estimate; measurement period unavailable.
Debt: Market-data provider estimate; a complete comparable filing balance is unavailable.
Quarterly burn: Estimated from trailing free cash flow; measurement period unavailable.
Net cash and estimated runway require verified matching measurement periods. Missing debt components are not assumed to be zero.
Runway: No underlying guidance available.