IDYAIDEAYA Biosciences, Inc.
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Thesis

Phase 2/3 primary endpoint met, NDA under RTOR — darovasertib approval would create first-ever systemic standard of care in uveal melanoma

Updated 6d ago

IDEAYA Biosciences is a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company developing darovasertib, a targeted cancer drug for metastatic uveal melanoma, which is not yet approved.

Darovasertib plus crizotinib met its Phase 2/3 primary endpoint in first-line HLA-A*02:01-negative metastatic uveal melanoma, reducing progression risk by 58% versus control, and the NDA is now filed under Real-Time Oncology Review. The thesis resolves on whether FDA grants approval on single-arm-supported Phase 2/3 data in a rare cancer with no approved systemic standard of care. Immunocore's tebentafusp addresses only HLA-A*02:01-positive patients, a complementary rather than overlapping population, while IDE849's 80% ORR in SCLC represents a credible but unproven secondary engine.

Status
Intact
Conviction

Current Thesis Drivers

  • OptimUM-02: HR 0.42, p=0.0001 — primary endpoint met
  • NDA filed under RTOR; first pre-submission completed May 2026
  • $1.24B cash; runway into 2030 at $122M/qtr burn
  • Approvability on single Phase 2/3 trial unresolved at FDA

What could change the thesis?

  • Darovasertib NDA decision: approval validates thesis; CRL resets timeline
  • OptimUM-01 ESMO data: label expansion supported or regulatory path narrowed
  • IDE849 Phase 3 trial initiation: design accepted opens registrational path; failure narrows pipeline

Generated from public SEC filings and disclosures. For informational purposes only — not investment advice. Always conduct your own research before making investment decisions.

Thesis log

Tracked in real time as it happened — not reconstructed after the fact

Key value driver

The most decisive event ahead

Bull and bear case

Both sides of the thesis, argued

Pipeline

10 programs · 16 catalysts

Stress Test