Avalo Therapeutics is a clinical-stage company developing abdakibart, an anti-IL-1 antibody for hidradenitis suppurativa; it is not approved.
Avalo's case rests on abdakibart, an antibody that blocks IL-1 signaling, in hidradenitis suppurativa (HS), where the Phase 2 LOTUS trial met its primary endpoint at both doses. Avalo plans to start a registrational Phase 3 program in the first half of 2027. HS already has approved IL-17 and TNF antibodies, so abdakibart will need to stand out on depth of response or dosing. Cash of $472.2 million should fund operations into 2029.
Thesis checklist
0 risks need attention
Why it is in this state
The evidence, what would weaken it and the source filing
Why it is in this state
The evidence, what would weaken it and the source filing
Why it is in this state
The evidence, what would weaken it and the source filing
Next decision point
Tests: Abdakibart's registrational Phase 3 starts in 1H 2027
Does Avalo start a Phase 3 that can show abdakibart beats placebo and stands out from approved drugs?
Strong, inconclusive and weak outcomes
What to look for in the result and how each would move the checklist
Price and material events
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After a positive Phase 2 in hidradenitis suppurativa, Avalo plans to start abdakibart's registrational Phase 3 in 1H 2027 with cash into 2029
Abdakibart's Phase 3 in hidradenitis suppurativa tests whether Phase 2 HiSCR75 efficacy replicates at registrational scale in a crowding competitive field
Abdakibart's Phase 2 HS win sets up a Phase 3 registration bet against an increasingly crowded IL-17/TNF-dominant competitive field
About this history: every entry shows when the Thesis moved and what it said. The reasoning behind each move (the evidence, the analysis and the source filing) and the earnings write-ups are part of a subscription.
Dates, trials and completed outcomes are open to everyone. What each upcoming milestone hinges on is part of a subscription.
Disease areas: Skin diseases, Rare genetic and metabolic diseases
Catalyst calendar · Upcoming FDA decisions · Thesis changes
Competitive landscape
7 peers tracked
Cash: Market-data provider estimate; measurement period unavailable.
Debt: Market-data provider estimate; a complete comparable filing balance is unavailable.
Quarterly burn: Estimated from trailing free cash flow; measurement period unavailable.
Net cash and estimated runway require verified matching measurement periods. Missing debt components are not assumed to be zero.
Runway: No underlying guidance available.