Market reactionShares fell 15% on Nov 5.
ALX Oncology is a clinical-stage company developing evorpacept, an immune drug that blocks the CD47 'don't eat me' signal, for HER2-positive breast cancer, and ALX2004, an antibody-drug conjugate; neither is approved.
ALX Oncology's case rests on evorpacept, which blocks CD47, a signal tumors use to avoid immune attack, in HER2-positive cancers with high CD47. In the randomized ASPEN-06 Phase 2 in gastric cancer, high-CD47 patients had a 65% response rate on the evorpacept combination versus 26% on the control regimen. ASPEN-09-Breast reports topline data in mid-2027, and cash of $153.4 million is expected to fund operations through the first half of 2028.
Thesis checklist
0 risks need attention
Why it is in this state
The evidence, what would weaken it and the source filing
Why it is in this state
The evidence, what would weaken it and the source filing
Why it is in this state
The evidence, what would weaken it and the source filing
Next decision point
Tests: ASPEN-09 confirms responses in HER2-positive breast cancer with high CD47
Does adding evorpacept clearly raise response rates, especially in patients with high CD47?
Strong, inconclusive and weak outcomes
What to look for in the result and how each would move the checklist
Price and material events
Select an event marker to read the update below. Marker colors show Thesis status.
ALX Oncology's evorpacept needs ASPEN-09 to confirm that HER2-positive breast cancers with high CD47 respond; topline data from 80 patients come in mid-2027
Evorpacept's CD47-biomarker-selected HER2+ mBC strategy tests whether innate immune checkpoint blockade can create durable responses post-ENHERTU
About this history: every entry shows when the Thesis moved and what it said. The reasoning behind each move (the evidence, the analysis and the source filing) and the earnings write-ups are part of a subscription.
Dates, trials and completed outcomes are open to everyone. What each upcoming milestone hinges on is part of a subscription.
Disease areas: Breast and gynecologic cancers, Gastrointestinal cancers, Other cancers
Catalyst calendar · Upcoming FDA decisions · Thesis changes
Competitive landscape
6 peers tracked
Cash: Market-data provider estimate; measurement period unavailable.
Debt: Market-data provider estimate; a complete comparable filing balance is unavailable.
Quarterly burn: Estimated from trailing free cash flow; measurement period unavailable.
Net cash and estimated runway require verified matching measurement periods. Missing debt components are not assumed to be zero.
Runway: No underlying guidance available.