MRD diagnostics growing 33% YoY; separation into two public companies is the make-or-break value unlock

Adaptive Biotechnologies is a commercial-stage diagnostics company whose lead product, an FDA-approved blood test for minimal residual disease in blood cancers, is growing 33% annually but faces a potential breakup that could unlock or destroy value depending on whether its loss-generating research unit can survive independently.

clonoSEQ, Adaptive's FDA-cleared blood cancer minimal residual disease test, is compounding at 33% revenue growth with 36,111 tests delivered in Q2 2026 alone. The thesis resolves on whether separating the MRD business from the loss-generating Immune Medicine unit surfaces standalone value — or whether the spin strands Immune Medicine without support. The structural risk is that $345M in zero-coupon convertible debt, layered onto $39.8M quarterly burn, constrains both entities post-separation if MRD growth decelerates.