Is the Adagene (ADAG) investment thesis intact?

Yes. Readouts currently rates the Adagene Thesis Intact. Muzastotug dose-selection results remain central as Incyte combination trial begins.

What is the next catalyst for Adagene (ADAG)?

The next dated event is Phase 1 start for ADG138, expected Q4 2026, as stated by the company. Also ahead: Phase 1 start for ADG126, expected H2 2026.

How long will Adagene's cash last?

Adagene has said its cash will fund operations into late 2028 (guidance as of August 12, 2026). It reported $128 million in cash as of June 30, 2026.

ADAGAdagene Inc.

Market reactionShares fell 16% on Nov 5.

IntactLast material event Sep 22, 2026 · Updated Oct 29, 2026

Muzastotug dose-selection results remain central as Incyte combination trial begins

Adagene is a clinical-stage company developing masked antibodies, led by muzastotug, a CTLA-4 antibody tested with pembrolizumab in colorectal cancer; none of its products is approved.

Adagene's case centers on masked CTLA-4 antibody muzastotug with pembrolizumab in MSS colorectal cancer without liver metastases. Earlier 20 mg/kg cohorts achieved 31% confirmed responses; 10 mg/kg cohorts had median overall survival of 19.8 months. Randomized Phase 2 results expected in 1H 2027 should guide registration dosing. Sanofi and Incyte trials broaden development. Cash of US$127.9 million includes April financing; management expects runway into late 2028.

Thesis checklist

0 risks need attention

Select a row for evidence

What must be trueStateNext proof

The randomized Phase 2 picks a dose for registrationAwaiting evidenceRandomized Phase 2 results expected in 1H 2027, comparing activity, durability and tolerability across regimens.Next: Randomized Phase 2 results expected in 1H 2027, comparing activity, durability and tolerability across regimens.

Why it is in this state

The evidence, what would weaken it and the source filing

A registration trial starts in 2027Awaiting evidenceRecommended dose selection followed by the potential registration trial start expected in 2027.Next: Recommended dose selection followed by the potential registration trial start expected in 2027.

Why it is in this state

The evidence, what would weaken it and the source filing

Partner trials broaden muzastotugSupportedPartner updates on combination dose escalation, safety and activity, including outcomes in patients with liver metastases.Next: Partner updates on combination dose escalation, safety and activity, including outcomes in patients with liver metastases.

Why it is in this state

The evidence, what would weaken it and the source filing

Cash lasts into late 2028SupportedNext financial disclosure: cash, development spending and any change to management's runway guidance.Next: Next financial disclosure: cash, development spending and any change to management's runway guidance.

Why it is in this state

The evidence, what would weaken it and the source filing

Next decision point

Randomized muzastotug dose-selection results

Tests: The randomized Phase 2 picks a dose for registration

1H 2027

Does either regimen offer a convincing balance of responses, durability and tolerability for registration development?

Strong, inconclusive and weak outcomes

What to look for in the result and how each would move the checklist

Questions to investigate

History

Price and material events

Select an event marker to read the update below. Marker colors show Thesis status.

IntactCurrentClinical

-8.1%Sep 22, 2026

Muzastotug dose-selection results remain central as Incyte combination trial begins

IntactClinical

+3.1%Apr 17, 2026

ADG126 bets that masked anti-CTLA-4 can unlock MSS CRC; Phase 2 dose-optimization results will determine whether a Phase 3 registration trial is warranted

About this history: every entry shows when the Thesis moved and what it said. The reasoning behind each move (the evidence, the analysis and the source filing) and the earnings write-ups are part of a subscription.

Pipeline

Colorectal cancer· MSS · 3L+

ADG126 · 3 upcoming · 3 completed

Phase 1 Study Initiation

H2 2026

Phase 2 Data

H1 2027

Phase 3 Study InitiationPivotal

2027

Solid tumors

ADG138 · 1 upcoming

Phase 1 Study InitiationChina

Q4 2026

Solid tumors

ADG126 · 1 completed

Phase 1/2 Study Initiation

Reported Aug 12, 2026

Hepatocellular carcinoma· first-line

ADG126 · 1 completed

Phase 1b/2 DataMorpheus Liver

Reported Apr 17, 2026

Dates, trials and completed outcomes are open to everyone. What each upcoming milestone hinges on is part of a subscription.

Quick answers

Is the Adagene (ADAG) investment thesis intact?: Yes. Readouts currently rates the Adagene Thesis Intact. Muzastotug dose-selection results remain central as Incyte combination trial begins.
What is the next catalyst for Adagene (ADAG)?: The next dated event is Phase 1 start for ADG138, expected Q4 2026, as stated by the company. Also ahead: Phase 1 start for ADG126, expected H2 2026.
How long will Adagene's cash last?: Adagene has said its cash will fund operations into late 2028 (guidance as of August 12, 2026). It reported $128 million in cash as of June 30, 2026.

Other companies we cover in these diseases

Colorectal cancer: CytomX Therapeutics (CTMX)Cardiff Oncology (CRDF)
Hepatocellular carcinoma: MAIA Biotechnology (MAIA)

Disease areas: Gastrointestinal cancers, Other cancers
Catalyst calendar · Upcoming FDA decisions · Thesis changes

Competitive landscape

5 peers tracked

Financial snapshot

Dates and calculation details

Cash: Market-data provider estimate; measurement period unavailable.

Debt: Market-data provider estimate; a complete comparable filing balance is unavailable.

Quarterly burn: Estimated from trailing free cash flow; measurement period unavailable.

Net cash and estimated runway require verified matching measurement periods. Missing debt components are not assumed to be zero.

Runway: No underlying guidance available.