Market reactionShares fell 10% on Nov 5.
AbCellera is a clinical-stage company developing ABCL635, an injected antibody for menopausal hot flashes, and ABCL575 for atopic dermatitis; neither is approved.
AbCellera's case rests on ABCL635, a long-acting injected antibody that blocks the NK3 receptor, for moderate-to-severe menopausal hot flashes. In Phase 2, a single 600 mg dose cut hot-flash frequency 83% versus 33% on placebo at week 4, with no serious or severe side effects. AbCellera has not yet set out the Phase 3 design, and it reported over $565 million of cash and marketable securities at June 30, then raised $200 million in August.
Thesis checklist
0 risks need attention
Why it is in this state
The evidence, what would weaken it and the source filing
Why it is in this state
The evidence, what would weaken it and the source filing
Why it is in this state
The evidence, what would weaken it and the source filing
Next decision point
Tests: A U.S. Phase 3 plan for ABCL635
Can AbCellera start a Phase 3 that supports approval of a long-acting injection?
Strong, inconclusive and weak outcomes
What to look for in the result and how each would move the checklist
Price and material events
Select an event marker to read the update below. Marker colors show Thesis status.
ABCL635 cut hot flashes 83% after one injection in Phase 2; the next step is a U.S. Phase 3 plan
ABCL635 Phase 2 primary endpoints met
ABCL635's Phase 2 efficacy readout in postmenopausal vasomotor symptoms will determine whether AbCellera's antibody platform can compete with approved NK3R antagonists
ABCL635's Phase 2 efficacy readout in postmenopausal vasomotor symptoms will determine whether AbCellera's clinical-stage pivot translates platform into therapeutic value
About this history: every entry shows when the Thesis moved and what it said. The reasoning behind each move (the evidence, the analysis and the source filing) and the earnings write-ups are part of a subscription.
Dates, trials and completed outcomes are open to everyone. What each upcoming milestone hinges on is part of a subscription.
Disease areas: Gastrointestinal cancers, Other cancers, Skin diseases, Autoimmune and inflammatory diseases, Endocrine and bone diseases
Catalyst calendar · Upcoming FDA decisions · Thesis changes
Competitive landscape
8 peers tracked
Cash: Market-data provider estimate; measurement period unavailable.
Debt: Market-data provider estimate; a complete comparable filing balance is unavailable.
Quarterly burn: Estimated from trailing free cash flow; measurement period unavailable.
Net cash and estimated runway require verified matching measurement periods. Missing debt components are not assumed to be zero.
Runway: No underlying guidance available.